My Favorite Chart

This chart is one of my favorites.  It maps the performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) versus the Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) and other risk-managed portfolios from Conservative to Aggressive (Dow Jones Portfolio Indices).

MyFavoriteChart.jpg

I updated the chart though October 2019 to reflect the extraordinary market recovery from the depths of Q4 2018.  I like this chart for mostly one reason; it shows the dramatic trade-off between risk and return.

The solid black line shows the path of the S&P 500 (SPY); very choppy and subject to big drawdowns and big recoveries.  The Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) is the mostly flat green line.  Each of the risk-managed portfolios of global stocks and bonds occupy the space between those boundaries; ordered appropriately with the most risk outpacing the lessor risk.

It is interesting to note that the Aggregate Bond Index actually outperformed the S&P 500 from 2008 through 2013; and then fell woefully behind since then.  The S&P 500 since 2013 has been on a tear widening its outperformance to the risk-managed portfolios with each subsequent month.

Fans of “reversion to the mean” will be anxiously awaiting the S&P 500 retraction whereas “momentum” players are looking for more gains.  We shall see; best to stay well-diversified in a portfolio managed to your appropriate risk-profile.