Over the past couple of years, I have written 116 weekly blog posts (this is 117!) During this period, we have seen plenty of market ups and downs and matters of note! I have found that I am never at a loss to write something about something. Though at times I thought about being a journalist, I followed my passion to manage investments; writing a blog is just a side benefit!
After reviewing my posts over the past two years, are there any general themes or topics that I seemed to focus on? Did I blaze new ground, or set myself up to publish a book with a compendium of related articles? I think the answer is a bit of everything!
A lot of the time, I simply start with a graphical update of how and why the markets or sectors did what they did. I am a “visual” type, and if I can create a compelling chart I can usually write something about it. Over the past year, there has been a lot of dispersion of returns between in- and out-of-favor sectors and asset classes, and that has been a fun topic for me to tear apart.
Occasionally, I will get philosophical. Back on December 31, 2018 I made a prescient pronouncement well ahead of the current COVID-19 pandemic that no matter how bad things get, we always seem to find a way to better our lot. From my post titled, Thoughts for a New Year, I expound:
Markets will be volatile, but we expect to be compensated for bearing the volatility. As long as we are comfortable with our risk profile and have a long enough time horizon, negative returns will recover (or, at least they always have!!). Accounts with more risk, over time, will out-return less risky accounts.
The book “The Rational Optimist”, by Matt Ridley, goes into great detail explaining how society has historically always figured out how to get past adversity.
And finally, I always try to educate and inform. Some of my favorite posts dealt with investment planning for retirement. I talked about When is $1 Million NOT $1 Million - when the assets are in a tax-deferred account and there is a large tax liability on it as withdrawals are made. I wrote about modelling a hypothetical investment plan for a retired couple seeking a high probability of success titled Is There a Number for You? which, by the way, I also posted on the investment blog, Seeking Alpha, and got 1,700 hits! I also took many stabs at presenting the “passive versus active” investment debate and how passive continues to outperform active management.
I will continue to post blogs because I think it may be interesting for my clients, potential clients, and friends and because it keeps me fully engaged in the capital markets and new ideas from thought leaders. If anyone has any questions they would like addressed in my blogs, please give me a holler and I will put something together pronto!