As I have reported to clients, this is the worst beginning of a year since 1942! Of course, that is no solace to me or you or anyone who has lost money in the market! As I have been reporting in my recent blog posts, there is a culmination of economic and political events all converging at the same time to increase “fear” and cause caution in the markets. From the “hawkish” Fed, increasing interest rates, heightened inflation, still-disrupted supply chains, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict, there are many reasons to be cautious.
S&P 500 large cap equities (IVV) are down -12.5% YTD (with small cap, international, and emerging markets down more) and investment grade corporate bonds (LQD) are down -15.0%, a highly unusual relationship that is fostered by the Fed threatening to move too fast with its tightening cycle. As bad as this feels, the beginning of the Covid pandemic during March 2020 saw stocks lose -35% (but bonds did provide some negative correlation at that time, unlike now). Over time, I do expect bonds to recover and produce a long term rate of return equivalent to its current yield of about 4%. Likewise, stocks are struggling now, but unless we all start to live in caves, have upside in the future.
As long as we are comfortable with your time horizon and risk appetite, I do not recommend selling now. If you sell now, it will be more difficult to recover the lost market value. Given the recent weakness in the markets, this is a good time to evaluate your lifestyles and to do more planning for the future, as recounted in the following D&A blog post “Do or Die” from July 20, 2020:.
The New York Times published a book review on July 12, 2020 that bears noting. It has an ominous title, “Die With Zero”, but it does highlight an interesting perspective on retirement planning. As the review states, the book covers important concepts on “why you save and how you live.”
Most financial and investment planners will tout the benefits of tax-deferred saving. The benefits of compounding of returns within tax-deferred accounts are well-documented and, everything else being equal, tax-deferred accounts always beats taxable accounts on an after-tax total return basis over any time horizon. So, if that is the case, keep the money invested in tax-deferred accounts as long as you can. But, for what purpose??
Certainly, as I have indicated in previous blog posts (“Is there a Number for You?”, https://www.dattilioash.com/our-blog/2020/4/30/is-there-a-number-for-you), cash flow testing of expenses and income overlaid with your investment portfolio is important to help you determine your probability of retirement success. If you have a high probability of success and a good amount of excess “cushion”, then you owe it to yourself to think about how you want to deploy the excess – whether save it for your heirs, gift it currently, or spend it currently on something that you value.
These are very personal decisions and only you can decide on the best answer for you. My role, as an investment planner, is to bring this point to your attention and identify the pros and cons.