This catch phrase, from the British comedy show Monty Python, is clear in its directive that what we are about to see is completely different from what we have seen in the past. In that show the results were usually absurd and ridiculous and were intended to elicit a chuckle. As it relates to the current market environment, we may be in the early stages of something modestly different in the form of an inflection point and some normalization of many of the key factors driving market returns.
Following are several of my favorite economic and market indicators from the FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) website and what they are saying right now:
Interest Rates – Fed Funds are still elevated based on the recent hikes to 5.25%-5.50%, but longer term rates like the 10-year Treasury have come down from a recent high of 4.98% to 4.40%. Implies less need for inflation premium for investing to longer term and potential for Fed easing in future that could provide boost for equities.
Inflation (CPI – Consumer Price Index) – At 3.23% in October 2023 it is down significantly from 8.93% in June 2022. Lower inflation that is closer to the Fed’s 2% targeted inflation rate implies the Fed is close to ending its restrictive monetary policy. This could be a positive sign for equities and fixed income.
Unemployment – at 3.9%, a bit higher than recently but still well within trend needed for stable and strengthening economy. Implies underlying strength of economy and purchasing power that will provide underlying strength in economic growth and could boost equities.
Investment Grade Bond Spreads – At 121 basis points, down from 162 basis points in March and close to recent low of 119 basis points back in August. Implies better financial strength for investment grade corporate bonds that could represent market belief that there is less risk premium in corporate credits implying corporate strength.
High Yield Bond Credit Spreads – At 402 basis points, down from 450 basis points in October, but is still at elevated levels compared to recent lows of 380 basis points back in August. Implies some strengthening financial condition of weaker companies, but is not as bullish as it could be.
Industrial Production and Capacity utilization – Both have normalized over the past year; current levels show Industrial production index at 102.7 and capacity utilization at 79.5% (very close to the long term average); values implying normal levels without supply-push inflationary pressures.
Consumer Sentiment – Index has trended up to 67.9 compared to recent lows of 50.0 in June of 2022 and 59.0 in May of 2023. Implies potential for consumer spending to increase from recent levels but could be more bullish.
So, plenty to be thankful for as we enter the Thanksgiving season! Many of these factors are positive indicators for better days ahead, but many external geopolitical factors around the world and other economic and market factors could upset the apple cart.